The calm before the reform
September 7th, 2010 by Bryden Elssmann
Closing Data
| Current | Change | % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | 10,447.93 | 127.83 | 1.2% |
| NASDAQ | 2,233.75 | 33.74 | 1.5% |
| S P 500 | 1,104.51 | 14.41 | 1.3% |
| FTSE 100 | 5,439.19 | 11.04 | 0.2% |
| Nikkei 225 | 9,301.32 | 187.19 | 2.1% |
| ASX 200 | 4,575.50 | 34.3 | 0.8% |
| COMEX Gold - Dec 09 | 1251.1 | -2.3 | -0.2% |
| COMEX Silver - Sep 09 | 19.949 | 0.277 | 1.4% |
| COMEX Copper - Sep 09 | 350 | 0.45 | 0.1% |
| WTI Spot | 74.6 | -0.42 | -0.6% |
| AUD-USD | 0.9175 | 0.002 | 0.2% |
| Aluminium | 2,148.50 | 20 | 0.9% |
| Copper | 7,660.50 | 29 | 0.4% |
| Lead | 2,160.00 | 23 | 1.1% |
| Nickel | 21,910.00 | 35 | 0.2% |
| Tin | 21,375.00 | -75 | -0.3% |
| Zinc | 2,146.00 | 13.5 | 0.6% |
After a quiet night, the absence of US leads due to the Labour Day holiday, the market will be focused on two events today. The likely formation of Government expected to be announced at 2pm AEST and the monthly RBA rates decision. The RBA are broadly expected to keep rates on hold, however the statement made it clear that the path has been laid for another potential rate hike this side of Christmas. As for the formation of Government, and after more than two weeks of political limbo, the announcement is likely to occur at 2pm Canberra times. The most election sensitive stocks include Telstra with the Coalition set to scrap the national broadband network and of course the mining stocks given the Coalition have promised to axe the mining resource tax. Also some gambling stocks may be in the spot light following Andrew Wilkie’s proposed restrictions to tackle problem gamblers. The SPI has the market poised to open up 6 points to 4580 points.
Offshore leads are slightly positive with the European market edging higher and President Obama announcing further stimulus measures, a 6 year US$50 billion infrastructure upgrade plan. In commodity markets spot gold rose to US$1,249.90, Copper was up 0.8% while zinc, aluminium and nickel all finished up at least 2%.
Macquarie Group
*DJ Macquarie Group Target Cut To A$33.20 From A$46.34 By JPMorgan
*DJ Macquarie Group Target Cut To A$49.00 From A$56.50 By Deutsche Bank
*DJ Macquarie Group Target Cut To A$40.00 From A$44.00 By UBS
*DJ Macquarie Group Target Cut To A$45.88 From A$54.00 By RBS
*DJ Macquarie Group Target Cut To A$37.80 From A$41.90 By Morgan Stanley
*DJ Macquarie Group Target Cut To A$40.10 From A$46.20 By Daiwa...keeps outperform
With this in mind, “Macquarie said in a presentation to be delivered to investors in London that despite the expected fall in earnings for the six months to Sept. 30, it still anticipates full year profit to be broadly in line with last year's A$1.05 billion "should market activity return to more normal levels" in the second half but conceded "uncertain conditions make short-term forecasting very difficult".
So if you’re a bull for the remainder of the year and into the new year, then MQG may offer the best leverage on the market for blue chips.
Let’s not forget it will be going ex-div in November and at current levels, maintaining its dividend, will put the stock on 5%+ yield...downside support on a break of yesterday’s 15 month 3400 low is 3000/3200 region, with gap fill @ 3200 combining with 68.2% FIB retracement from March 09 lows and Sep 09 highs
Contact your Freeman Fox Stockbroker on 07 3031 9960 or 1800 003 369 Ext 7.
Disclaimer
The material in “Market Fox” (newsletter) is of a general nature only and neither purports nor is intended to be regarded as advice. No consideration has been given or will be given to your investment objectives, financial situation or needs. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk. Not all risks can be or will be explained in the newsletter. Previous results are no indication of future results. Actual results achieved in the market can vary considerably. The Directors and Representatives of Freeman Fox Ltd and their associates may hold securities in the companies presented.
The research made available in this newsletter is for your private use only and it is protected by applicable copyright laws and other applicable intellectual property right laws. You may not reproduce, distribute, disseminate, broadcast, sell, publish, circulate or give for free, any of the materials made available to you in this newsletter without first seeking the prior written consent of Freeman Fox Ltd.
Freeman Fox Ltd is not required to update any of the content made available in this newsletter, including but not limited to any research commentary, forecasts, recommendations or other analysis in this newsletter. Therefore, for the avoidance of any doubt, material made available in this newsletter may not be accurate after the date of publication or the date on which it is displayed in the newsletter.
To the extent permitted by law, Freeman Fox Ltd and their respective directors, officers, employees, contractors and agents disclaim all responsibility to you for any loss, liability, claim, expense (including but not limited to legal costs and resultant defence or settlement costs) or damage whatsoever, whether direct, consequential, special, incidental, punitive or indirect (including but not limited to loss of profits, trading losses and damages that result from delay, loss or inconvenience) arising out of or in connection with the content of the newsletter and/or any omissions from the content whether in contract, tort (including negligence), statute or otherwise and even if Freeman Fox Ltd has been advised of the possibility of such damage or loss.
If you require assistance in relation to your personal investment situation, contact an authorised representative of Freeman Fox Ltd.